
Soutenance
Soutenance de thèse de Bruno Tomio
le 15 février 2022
15h.
Les effets de carry trade dans les pays développés et en développement : les cas de la Suisse et du Brésil
Membres du jury :
Summary : Carry trade is a well-established investment strategy in the world financial market. By profiting from the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), speculators force a vicious cycle on the world economy. The impacts of this speculative activity go beyond the monetary economy. By impacting the real economy, currency speculation impact negatively the well-functioning of our international financial system. Notably, developing countries tend to suffer more from the carry trade activity than developed countries. Indeed, the carry trade is an anomaly created by financialization that affects all countries in the world. Central banks play a central role in incentivizing the carry trade activity by systematically sustaining interest rate differentials. Therefore, there is a political economy problem, where some central banks are more powerful than others. More recently, the COVID-19 crisis pushed monetary easing worldwide, making carry trade less attractive in a sort of zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rate differentials. Looking into the future, the climate crisis will push monetary policies disparities even further. This is a puzzling new scenario, where the carry trade will continue to thrive. Overall, the main research of this thesis does not fade away: how does carry trade impact the real economy activity? This thesis proposes to investigate two of the main currencies in the carry trade context: Swiss franc (developed country/funding currency) and Brazilian real (developing country/target currency). With four chapters, the main conclusion is that carry trade do impact the real economy. Therefore, more coordinated policies among central banks are needed to tame the negative spillovers of this pervasive speculative activity on the real economy.
- M. Guillaume VALLET, Université Grenoble Alpes, Directeur de thèse
- M. Roberto MEURER, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Rapporteur
- M. Cédric TILLE, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (GIIDS), Rapporteur
- Mme Ilene GRABEL, University of Denver, Examinatrice
- Mme Annina KALTENBRUNNER, University of Leeds, Examinatrice
- Mme Silvia MIRANDA-AGRIPPINO, Bank of England, Examinatrice
- M. Radu BURLACU, Université Grenoble Alpes, Examinateur
Summary : Carry trade is a well-established investment strategy in the world financial market. By profiting from the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), speculators force a vicious cycle on the world economy. The impacts of this speculative activity go beyond the monetary economy. By impacting the real economy, currency speculation impact negatively the well-functioning of our international financial system. Notably, developing countries tend to suffer more from the carry trade activity than developed countries. Indeed, the carry trade is an anomaly created by financialization that affects all countries in the world. Central banks play a central role in incentivizing the carry trade activity by systematically sustaining interest rate differentials. Therefore, there is a political economy problem, where some central banks are more powerful than others. More recently, the COVID-19 crisis pushed monetary easing worldwide, making carry trade less attractive in a sort of zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rate differentials. Looking into the future, the climate crisis will push monetary policies disparities even further. This is a puzzling new scenario, where the carry trade will continue to thrive. Overall, the main research of this thesis does not fade away: how does carry trade impact the real economy activity? This thesis proposes to investigate two of the main currencies in the carry trade context: Swiss franc (developed country/funding currency) and Brazilian real (developing country/target currency). With four chapters, the main conclusion is that carry trade do impact the real economy. Therefore, more coordinated policies among central banks are needed to tame the negative spillovers of this pervasive speculative activity on the real economy.
Localisation
Salle visioconférence du Creg, Bateg.
Mis à jour le 21 janvier 2022